Rumours of Death

A timely reversal of fortunes in the Magners League this weekend, with both the Scarlets and Dragons defying expectations with deserved victories over the Blues and Ospreys respectively... damn their eyes! :-)

So things are competitive in Wales again, and that's got to be healthy. Consolation for the Os came in the form of a losing bonus point, and also in the form of Gavin Henson. Finally able to boast two working ankles, a clear head, a clean disciplinary slate and a mostly, if not completely un-pregnant girlfriend, Gav ran in a casual brace just as a reminder that he's still a dab hand at that Rugby lark.

Mike Phillips was back, too. Things can only get better... right?

History Is Bunk

Just as the wave of hope was cresting, it breaks against this. Yet again, keeping 22 human bodies intact between Tuesday and Saturday, proves beyond the power of Welsh Rugby.

The loss of Henson probably has more psychological impact on the team than anything; Roberts and Shanklin are no mugs. But with Hook on the bench, the Welsh backline suddenly looks a far blunter instrument.

Which is frustrating, because I was going to echo Jerry Guscott's words about how Wales are running out of excuses. Grand Slam champions should be feared on their own turf - regardless of history, no team shoud turn up at the Millennium Stadium and be expected to win, as South Africa widely are.

Ah, but that history... One win in over a century, ten games ago - it's a record that validates all that media skepticism. The recieved wisdom is that - world-class players notwithstanding - we just don't have the bottle.

It's well past time to put that to bed, so excuses be damned. Wales may not be at full-strength tomorrow - no team shorn of the likes Henson, Mike Phillips, Jon Thomas, Huw Bennett and Mark Jones can seriously be called that - but it's no "second string" either, and the visitors have squad issues of their own (and on top of them, they've had the cheek to pick talismanic captain Jon Smit out of position, which seems rather like to picking Superman to drive the Batmobile).

It's still World Champions against European Champions, and Saturday's hosts must live up to that billing. They must prove what we, as their supporters, suspect but perhaps don't quite yet believe - that the spring was not a lonely season, and that this time, Wales are the Real Deal.

Normal Service

...will shortly resume.

Meanwhile;

xkcd - A webcomic of romance, sarcasm, math, and language.

A Bit Of Good Ol' Mutual Consent

So, farewell then,
Lyn Jones.
You were
A good laugh
At times.

But it hasn't
Been funny for
Quite a while.

- I.S. Gibbs (63¾)

Disincentive

Magners League to provide 24th Heineken Cup qualifier

As the league stutters to a close, this drops in. The higher-placed of Connacht and the Dragons will play in the Heineken next year, guaranteed.

The Ospreys have yet to play both teams. As a result of this move, and with the Ospreys already qualified, the clear interests of Welsh Rugby lie in the Ospreys throwing the Dragons game. This situation is not the fault of anyone at either club. If the Magners League has any sanction in place against such behaviour, it had better make it known quickly. Otherwise, Connacht will have a legitimate grievance should they miss out.

Had this announcement been delayed 24 hours, the Rodney Parade game would be done and dusted and there would be no issue. Connacht surely have the right to ask why this couldn't have been done?

No More Ifs...

Where was I?

Ah well - disaster & triumph for the Ospreys, and it's still a tall order to treat those two impostors both the same. After burying Saracens in the EDF Cup semi, they contrived to fall meekly to the same opponents in the European quarter-finals. Inconsistency incarnate. Bah!

But as consolation prizes go, the EDF Cup isn't bad - and to take the trophy from the Leicester Tigers, at Twickenham, would be any Welsh team's dream. Some meaningful silverware in the Liberty Stadium cabinet - not to mention a healthy portion of sweet revenge - at long last.

Meanwhile, the Blues & Scarlets managed to serve up an eight-try thriller at the Arms Park, to give a welcome boost to the credibility of the Magners League. A corking match, made so more by attacking skills than defensive weaknesses, for a change. More, please!

As Grand as It Gets...

Never in doubt, was it?

Mark Jones' impromptu rendition of "Rockin' All Over The World" on Corner Flag stole the after-match show, as might his late run have crowned the match had he made it another yard. So leave it to the Williams boys, then; one for the show-stopper, the other for the encore.


Shane not only became Wales' highest-ever tryscorer; his last two efforts have completed a full-house of top-flight victims. Surely even Ben Cohen must be impressed by now? As for the ageless "Nugget", well, I pondered for a while but couldn't beat this from The Telegraph's Martin Johnson:

"Williams is one of those players who appears to have powdered Duracell, rather than blood, flowing through his veins, and his work in those dark areas beneath piles of steaming bodies puts you in mind of a ferret plunging down rabbit holes. The French back row will doubtless spend the next few weeks checking underneath their beds, just to make sure he's not there."

The Cardiff rain pinged off the stadium roof, but records still fell from the sky; Shane's Top Gun, half the previous record for tries conceded in a 6N (2 to England's 4 in 2003), 10/10 wins from 6N starts for Gavin Henson... and almost lost in there, Wales' biggest win over the French since... well, Agincourt, probably.

Neutrals will deride the quality of the game, and fairly so. But it is probably the greatest signifier of Wales' renaissance that they can now win games like this, and win them comfortably. Croke Park last week was an even less gaudy spectacle than this game, but Wales' performance there was a rough diamond of high carat. This was even better. A full-strength French XV never looked like scoring a try, and the scrum they lost under the Welsh posts perfectly symbolized their inferiority. That incident alone should earn the match video an 18 rating in France, while forwards coaches elsewhere will be busy making screensavers out of it.

England ambushed; Scotland dismissed; Italy humbled; Ireland outmuscled; France nullified. Where next for this Welsh side? A two-match series in South Africa, no less. It doesn't get any easier, does it?

Yet you sense that this Wales outfit wouldn't have it any other way...

Grand, Or Just Good?

So, it's 18 points, then. If Wales lose by 19, it stands to reason that they'll be behind France on tries (11 each at present), so 18 is the magic number. Surely a Shaun Edwards-coached side can't leak that badly?

It's kind of a shame that the Six Nations scoring system allows for such a potential anticlimax; once before (1994) Wales lifted the trophy after losing the final game, and there's nothing like it for turning a triumph into an embarrassment. By any rational analysis, winning this tournament would be (dare we say "has been"?) a remarkable feat of resurrection from the cold ashes of RWC2007; but it won't feel that way if Wales lose the game by the odd score tomorrow.

Ah well; all the more reason to go out and beat France, I suppose. But how annoying that they seem to have brought their real team this time. Rotten spoilsports!

Friends in Low Places

Despite being edited almost to oblivion, I'm still going to link to "Carling's Round" episode 6, although nothing really interesting happens until about 10 minutes in :-) Don't know star quality when they see it, that lot!

The guys were very welcoming and friendly, and the whole thing was a "hoot", as we rugger-buggers say. Oh, and later that day Shaun Edwards and Clive Woodward both came out agreeing with me about the Cipriani affair. Where were you when I needed you, chaps? Well, okay Shaun - helping Wales win the Triple Crown is a decent excuse, I suppose...

Anyway... I'm ready for my close-up!

The Business End

The Wales team is close to most predictions, although there's some surprise (perhaps even the odd whisper of dissent?) that Jamie Roberts' heroics against Munster weren't enough merit a bench spot. But we're in thrall to this coaching team's prescience so far, and we'll all probably eat our words when Mark Jones gets a hat-trick against the Irish...

Meanwhile, please forgive a little plug - Yours Truly will be appearing on a monitor near you via the Daily Telegraph video podcast, Carling's Round. Please check out episode 6 from Friday 7th onward. I shall be doing my level best to get the odd word in edgeways!

Benign Dictatorship?

The issue of "player power" in Wales is again in the news after Gavin Henson's interview on BBC's ScrumV. Because it's Henson, reaction of all colours will be forthcoming, but his words carry the ring of truth. His problems with the previous regime were clear to see, and few will argue that a system which makes players like Henson happy, must be a good thing.

Not that much to cheer about on the field for Welsh teams this week; but the best was saved for last. Cardiff Blues' stunning finish against Munster could be argued to owe a debt to fortune, but the visitors' crazy attempt to play keep-ball on their own try-line for the last ten minutes, appears no less crazy for having almost worked.

Next up will be Warren Gatland's team announcement for Wales' trip to Dublin. Primed now to expect the unexpected, most observers still seem to anticipate Stephen Jones starting at 10 against the Irish. The accepted wisdom is that Wales will need calm control more than quick wits at the start. What is not in dispute is that we'll also need another step up from the forwards. Will this be Robin McBryde's finest hour?

Matters Arising

Plenty happening off the field this week, after "Super Saturday" fed our appetites for action. There is argument over the culpability of Scott Macleod in his pharmacological crisis; for my money, we're getting too precious. A clearly honest mistake has been made - and any sport that proscribes asthma medication needs to be thinking again anyway. It is to my chagrin, but your advantage, that all the jokes conflating "Scotland" and "performance enhancement" have already been done.

Then there is the matter of disciplinary fallout from the Wales v Italy match; two Italian players cited for foul play. Mauro Bergamasco has earned a great deal of respect in these quarters over recent years, but has seriously undermined all that with his behaviour on Saturday. Carlo Del Fava's transparently cynical assault on Stephen Jones, however, has been deemed acceptable by the citing commission. This is incomprehensible in light of the publically available evidence (above), and the player's previous record. It's challenging to imagine how reasonable doubt about Del Fava's intentions could arise from a disinterested position.

Meanwhile, talk is surfacing again of the old idea of annually playing off the Six Nations and Tri-Nations champions. Notionally attractive, perhaps; but surely a logistical nightmare in a world of crowded fixture lists and imcompatible playing seasons? Such problems notwitstanding, resistance should be expected from those with material or emotional investements in the Rugby World Cup, whose stifling presence already so distorts the calendar. Any percieved erosion of the Web-Ellis Trophy's value as the "gold standard", will ruffle plenty of feathers - good enough reason in itself to raise the issue, perhaps.

Bogus, not Bonus.

There's no doubting that Shaun Edwards is one of the sharpest tools in rugby's box. When he speaks about the game, everyone should listen. But his call for the introduction of bonus points to the Six Nations tournament is a non-starter. Not only wouldn't it work, but we wouldn't want it to.

The system works well in its original place - to encourage endeavour and discourage negativity in long league seasons. Bonus points add a little extra spice, a token, which can add up to something more valuable - and, by definition, deserved - at the end of the road.

In short tournaments, however, they are an unwelcome distortion. The Heineken and EDF cups are poorer for their inclusion in the group stages, as has been evidenced by recent events. Teams have been effectively eliminated too early, leaving a high proportion of "dead rubbers" (The Newport Gwent Dragons were dumped out of the EDF this season after one defeat, making a mockery of the group format.) Otherwise successful teams are penalised for one slight off-day where - despite winning - they failed to amass sufficient points against a minnow. And lest I be accused of hiding an agenda - yes, it still sticks in this writer's throat that Northampton qualified for the quarter-finals of last year's Heineken Cup at The Ospreys' expense, despite an inferior win/loss record.

The Six Nations is a simple win/lose format, and that works just fine. The driving need to find a winner at all costs has already led to the loss of the perfectly acceptable "shared" championship, and now we declare a winner on score difference. That's bad enough. Bonus points would take this beyond the absurd.

By illustration, here is last year's 6N table:

	P	W	D	L	F	A	Pt
France	5	4	0	1	155	86	8
Ireland	5	4	0	1	149	84	8
England	5	3	0	2	119	115	6
Italy	5	2	0	3	94	147	4
Wales	5	1	0	4	86	113	2
Scotland	5	1	0	4	95	153	2

And here is that same table adjusted by the BP system:

	P	W	D	L	F	A	Pt
Ireland	5	4	0	1	149	84	19
France	5	4	0	1	155	86	18
England	5	3	0	2	119	115	13
Italy	5	2	0	3	94	147	9
Wales	5	1	0	4	86	113	5
Scotland	5	1	0	4	95	153	5

I seriously doubt that anyone not living on the Emerald Isle would argue that this would have been a better, fairer result than the one we received. I'd argue that the title should have been shared. But if we must discriminate, then a comparison of points for/against over the whole tournament is, surely, fairer than rewarding the side who scored fewer points, but in the right games?

So much for all of that. However, I needn't have bothered - there's a simpler objection. One that kills the whole idea in a single blow. With bonus points in place, the possibility would exist that a team could win the Grand Slam, but lose the championship: Pure anathema. Hell, why are we even talking about it?

The press are obviously pestering Shaun Edwards for soundbites daily, and perhaps this was just him dropping a bomb to buy himself a few days' rest. I'd like to think so. His reputation as a rugby fixer extraordinaire is well-earned, and well-deserved.

But the Six Nations simply ain't broke.

Musical Justins

No, it wasn't a very early April Fool - Justin Marshall really did play 80 minutes at full-back for the Ospreys!

A weekend off for the Six Nations, and that always feels weird. I was at the Liberty Stadium to watch the "Ospreys - Welsh Squad Members + Mike Phillips" stick a hatful on hapless Connacht. The outrageous Marshall ploy signaled either supreme confidence, or desperation. Fortunately for Marshall and Lyn Jones, it didn't really matter as the visitors lacked any idea of how to exploit the situation. Although they deserve some credit for trying to run the ball and not just kicking for territory, in truth they were fairly clueless with it, and their last-minute consolation try was simply due to the Ospreys unforgivably relaxing at a close-range penalty. Another "nil" would have been a welcome tonic, too... grrr...

After only needing second gear to see off an abject Scotland side, Wales look to the prospect of Italy' visit with confidence tempered by nervous caution - remembering that we haven't beaten the Azzurri since 2005. It is to be hoped that precise timekeeping will be unimportant - but just in case, perhaps the Millennium Stadium scoreboards should show the time remaining in a super-large font?

Panic Pandemic

One round in, and 6N players are dropping like flies. For once, it is England who bear the brunt of the plague - not content with robbing them of four starters during the first game, the crock-fates have now targetted Tom Rees and Phil Vickery, leaving the team to face Italy with a decidedly patchwork feel.

Wales have got off lightly this time around, though the loss of Alun-Wyn Jones will hurt. More prominent in Welsh pre-game natter has been the refreshing approach of Warren Gatland; dropping under-performing players from a winning team, and publically explaining why. It sounds common-sense enough, but in Wales, it's little short of revolutionary. Meanwhile, big things are hoped for from Jamie Roberts on his first cap.

There was precious little attacking threat offered by Scotland last weekend, and stripping their XV of both Rory Lamont and Simon Webster has hardly made them look more formidable. This is precisely the problem for Wales, of course - they will now be comfortable favourites for Saturday's game, a position traditionally injurious to Welsh prospects. But a mental toughening is exactly what Gatland has targetted for this squad, so how they deal with justified expectations will be the key factor of their weekend.

19:26 - The Great Strike

The Head had a shocker - the heart is on a roll. Quite how exactly Wales triumphed at Twickenham could probably be the basis of a PhD thesis, if not a whole book. The beating they took in that first half could surely only lead to another of those cricket scores, to which we have become numb? England's superiority - whether at set-piece, in their game-management, or in the incisiveness of their running - was so absolute that many Welsh fans must surely have been tempted to hit the M4 a full 50 minutes early?


And yet, inexplicably - gloriously - England threw it away. The Twickenham shooting party blew both its own feet off. Having clung on heroically, Wales were still there to pick up the pieces and exorcise a 20-year ghost with 20 minutes of punishingly clinical, intelligent rugby. Having been toyed with for an hour, they finished by dismissing England's last desperate twitches with something approaching contempt. It was rarely pretty, but it was in its own way magnificent.

Most encouraging of all the wonders of the day, however, was to hear Warren Gatland's sober reflections. Quick to point out how awful Wales had been for long periods, and equally quick to praise his battered warriors for getting off the ropes and landing the knockout. The sense of a man with his head screwed on only grows. He knows how often Wales have blown a good start in this tournament, and he knows we won't get another gift like this one.

The Calm...

"So it's that time again; the team has been mulled over, the fly-half debate has polarised us, those without ferry tickets have booked their seats in the local, and the butterflies begin. In our heads, the voice of bitter experience tells us to expect little, to enjoy the moment, to be philosophical. But deep in our hearts breathes a dream of the impossible, and it just won't go away. It is our hearts laid bare, it is our Heaven and our Hell, but still they tell us, it's only a game. And a game with stupid-shaped balls, at that. What do they know?"

I wrote the above for Gwl@d's front page, the day before 6N kick-off in 2002. I haven't yet found better way to express how these few days always feel. A little more than 24 hours after I typed the above, Ireland put a half-century of points past Wales to end Graham Henry's shift at the wheel. I remember still feeling numb as I typed;

"The home crowd's joy carried overtones of disbelief, but the aftershock of this result in Wales can only be fearfully imagined. Wales were quite simply atrocious, and finding the will to carry on will be enough of a challenge for the coaches and the team, let alone the transformation required to rescue yet another Six Nations crisis."

and positively undead while responding, weeks later, to England's emulation of the feat:

"There is not much more to say about England's frankly ridiculous superiority. Wales gave it pretty much everything, but not only weren't they good enough, they weren't even on Planet Good Enough. It's less painful - but ultimately more wounding - because it's not a surprise."

Six years, a few more stuffings, and an increasingly incongruous Grand Slam later, and fear of another dose of that unpalatable (not to mention ineffective) medicine leaves a knot in the stomach. But next to it is that other knot, the red one, the one that hopes, and dreams, and reaches out of the stomach for the heart. It gets you every time. It tells you that this year, this time, it'll be different. And no matter how many times it is wrong, we remember the times it was right. That is our curse, our blessing, and our battle-cry as we head for the pub, the bus... or the away dressing room.

Club vs Country?

RBS 6 Nations Rugby : Ospreys dominate Wales team

You've got to hand it to Warren Gatland - make a thoroughly conservative team selection, but make it look like a revolution - thirteen Ospreys players in the starting lineup.

It's throwing down a marker, allright. It's thinking the unthinkable; pick your first XV, and if they're all from the same place, so be it. A Welshman could never, in a million years, get away with it.

Whether Gatland gets away with it on the field, remains to be seen. On paper, there seems no reason why Wales can't compete a Twickenham, or even (gasp!) win. In terms of experience, the back rows are ludicrously mis-matched in Wales' favour; the half-backs look sharper; there are three lineout options; and if the back three look defensively suspect, so do England's.

But despite all that, scour the press and you won't find a single pundit predicting a Welsh victory. Not one. The reason is not a balanced assessment of the teams' relative qualities - it is, quite simply, History. Time and again Wales have gone to Twickenham with genuine hope. Time and again, they have left in shattered ignominy. In the previous decade of this fixture, they have conceded an average of 47 points, and scored an average of 16. The Welsh "Twickers Collapse" has become a tradition, and seems irrespective of the perceived quality of the side that takes the field.

So, where will it all go wrong this time? Certainly, in the front row, it looks like the same old story of Shermans vs King Tigers - the scrum will be torrid for Wales. If Gavin Henson has forgotten anything about Six Nations rugby, Toby Flood seems well set to remind him. Paul Sackey and Dave Strettle have the pace to at least match Mark Jones and Shane Williams. And if Gatland truly imagines that a bombardment of fullback Iain Balshaw can make the difference, he must know something about Lee Byrne that few others have spotted.

Still, its nothing if not intriguing. And even if the story stays the same on Saturday, in the long term, the new Welsh management team look to have their eyes on the ball. That in itself is worth celebrating.

Nil Is The New Three

Gone are the days, it seems, where an overwhelmed side would post a plaintive 3 points on the board just to prove they'd turned up. The new fashion - debuted by Wales in Australia, gloriously sported by England in the World Cup - is to let a doughnut tell its own story. In the weekend's Heineken Cup action, the Dragons and the Scarlets earned an ignominious double-oh that signified anything but a license to thrill; while Bristol, having enjoyed their 17-0 stuffing of Stade Francais earlier, showed the Memorial Ground faithful the sharp end of the same scoreline in a meek defeat to the Blues. Cardiff's finest, though, inexplicably recalled the hounds before the eminently achievable home quarter-final draw was secured, and now must go to Toulouse. Ouch.

The Ospreys made heavy weather of things at Bourgoin, looking superior but never comfortable thoughout. The result, however, was everything they could have hoped for in the end. Top seeds or not, Saracens don't look like the worst away draw this year. Timely displays of form from Ryan Jones, Sonny Parker and Gavin Henson added to the satisfaction of the weekend, but none so much as the blistering form of Martyn Williams for the Blues, days after being coaxed out of an international retirement that nearly everyone agreed was premature. Arguably the best openside flanker in Britain, Williams remains vital to Wales' prospects in the medium term, and his return could hardly be more welcome - provided he can keep that look out of his eye this time...

Uncharted Waters

For all our frailties, Welsh Rugby stands on the brink of a modest first; two teams in the last eight of the European Cup. Naysayers will point to the undeniable truth that we have ridden this far on the backs of a phalanx of Southern Hemisphere forward talent; Rush, Tiatia, Tito, Hola...

But that's not quite the whole story, and there has been a Welsh flavour. The emergence of Jamie Roberts as a prospect so hot that he's being touted to hold the line at Twickenham; the effervescent displays by Gareth Williams, beguiling us to believe that we might finally have found a hooker; and the treat of yet another moment of individual inspiration from Gavin "What's He Ever Done?" Henson, which broke the backs of Gloucester.

But individuals aside, fans have genuinely begun to detect a change - a hint of steely resolve, of intransigence, of cold pragmatism. Are we kidding ourselves? Or are our professional teams finally, finally getting it? Wouldn't that be great?

The Blues and the Ospreys face one more test each - in England and France respectively - before they must face the even trickier task of avoiding each other in the quarter-final draw. Well, let's be optimistic, eh?

Scrappy New Year

The Celtic League has not, it would be fair to say, had a great Christmas. The standard of Rugby over the holidays was consistently dire, with the Welsh regions major offenders.

This week, the Ospreys' second-string once again gave fans more to cheer than the firsts have managed of late - ultimately leaving the RDS empty-handed, but having performed creditably against a full-strength Leinster outfit. The Blues, meanwhile, were outdone at water polo by Edinburgh - and you have to say that Phil Godman's 35m drop-goal, off that quagmire, was a thing of wonder and a worthy matchwinner. That it should have come to that, however, is simply unacceptable. It was left to the Dragons again to provide Welsh cheer; a valuable away win in Glasgow confirming them as our best performers of the holiday period.

Elsewhere, sad to note that superfrog Christophe Dominici has retired from international rugby. One of the game's true characters, his heady mix of the sublime (shredding the All Blacks in RWC99) and ridiculous (remember his comedy in-goal fumble against Italy?) will certainly be missed. Bon chance, boyo!