BallsUpGate

The events surrounding Wales' try at the weekend are obviously a mess. I think most can agree that referee Jonathan Kaplan should simply have disallowed the try and re-played the lineout.

However, I don't concur with the opprobrium raining down on assistant referee Peter Allan. I believe that Kaplan is primarily to blame. Here's what I think happened; condensed as much as possible, I promise:

The lineout isn't full-formed but several players are in place. Kaplan moves to the correct lineout position, marks it with his foot, and then watches as Rees instantly feeds Phllips to restart. The key issue subsequently is, what does Kaplan think just took place? A quick throw-in, or a lineout?

After Ireland protest the score Kaplan asks Allan "Are you comfortable? Correct ball?"

NOTE - he doesn't ask if it was the SAME ball.

Allan replies "It wasn't a quick throw-in. He threw it in quickly, but..."

Allan KNOWS the ball was changed, but he thinks it is irrelevant because he believes a lineout had formed.

Kaplan, crucially, interrupts him by repeating "Was it the correct ball?" This clearly suggests that he thinks it was a quick throw-in, as it's an irrelevant question otherwise. Allan disagrees, but if repeats his assertion, or asks for clarification, he risks appearing to show dissent and undermining Kaplan's authority. But he does genuinely believe that a fair lineout took place. The safest way out now, as he sees it, is to (a) stick to his original opinion (without repeating it) and (b) answer the question precisely as asked.

He says, carefully, "It's the correct ball, yes."

Kaplan: "It is?"

Allan: "Yes. Yes."

Believing that a lineout took place, Allan regards any match ball as "the correct ball", so this answer is truthful. Assuming that Allan did know about the ball change, what he could have said, without necessarily implying criticism or dissent, is "It wasn't the SAME ball." Under pressure, he played it safe.

But the main fault lies with Kaplan for not making it clear what kind of restart he was officiating over. And he didn't even need to do that explicitly, if only he had just asked "Was that the SAME ball?"

His insistence on the word "correct" effectively passed the buck to his assistant. I don't blame Peter Allan for passing it straight back.

Calling The Mark

Much has been made - and fairly so - of Wales' abysmal home record against Ireland. If we thought the Grand Slam decider of '05 had buried the hoodoo, we've been put right on that score since. Whoever comes in as the fancied side, Ireland simply always win this fixture. It's incredibly frustrating, and like all dorsal primates, its grip only seems to increase for struggling.

It's as pertinent as ever this year, as the game offers a knife-edge to Wales' immediate future.Win, and mid-table respectability is secured. Wales can then roll the dice in Paris... and that has worked before. Lose, and the spectre of yet another ignominious fourth place - or worse - casts a suffocating pall of doubt over any foreign ambitions.

But there's a statistical escape route for Wales. Of Ireland's last three victories in Cardiff, two have been secured by late drop-goals from Ronan O'Gara. Factor in his habitual controlling performances on home soil, and it's hard to nominate another single player responsible for so much grievous damage to Welsh rugby fortunes in the last decade. Brian O'Driscoll may inspire a more visceral terror when he takes the field; but it's O'Gara who usually beats us.

So, with the teams widely regarded as being evenly matched - even if that equates more prosaically to "equally mediocre" - and theories abounding as to the strategies that may win the day, I humbly offer my own whiteboard suggestions for securing a rare Welsh victory. In the finest tradition of the armchair theorist; if we don't do this, and lose... well, expect me to file my next blog entry from my holiday chalet in the People's Republic of I Told You So.