Impossible Things, Before Breakfast.

What on Earth happened?

Welsh rugby fans have become used to dizzying peaks and troughs, but even we now seem to have a case of national vertigo. Partly by accident of scheduling - it must be conceded - but mostly by unprecedentedly good play and management, Wales find themselves in their first RWC semi-final since The One That Doesn't Really Count, the only obstacle between them and ridiculous glory being a French side who have "done an England", by getting this far almost despite themselves.

Ay, there's the fly in the muscle-rub; France. Even worse, BAD France. It's a challenge to recall the last must-win game that France lost having started as underdogs. Dismissing their chances is like giving them a 15-point start. If the consensus holds that the French have one great game in them, then Wales are in trouble, as Les Bleus only spent about a quarter of that credit in seeing off England. There's still 60 minutes of invincibility left in the tank, then.

In a microcosm of the La-La-Land in which this Welsh squad find themselves, the replacement of last month's third-choice fly-half with the man most observers regard as the most creative player in the squad, is widely seen as weakening the Welsh team. Rhys Priestland has been the revelation in a tournament of revelations for Wales, and the success so far has given the lie to the traditional notion that Wales must play with an out-and-out playmaker at either #10 or #12. James Hook is now regarded with suspicion; his defensive imperfections highlighted, his oft-quoted difficulties with game-management pored over. The resurgence of Jamie Roberts as a midfield line-breaker - undeniably central to Wales' success -  is widely accredited to Priestland's presence. Hook's inclusion, forced by circumstance, looks likely to radically alter a system that was working just fine without him.

The French loose forward wolfpack will be looking to gorge themselves on Hook; but if they tire and leave gaps, as they did against England, there's no better card in the Welsh deck. Wales' bigger fear is a creative French kicking game, as their scramble defence is not yet up to the standard of their "first-up" tackling. If Médard and Mermoz can get up to speed against a back-pedaling Welsh three-quarter line, they'll back themselves.

So far, arguably Wales' greatest strength has been their refusal to panic when they concede. France will mix it up early on, and will certainly lead at some point in the match.  But if any Welsh side of the past generation is equipped to roll with the French punches, it's this one. Too close to call? Not really. If neither side raises their game significantly, Wales will win. It's France who have something to prove - and that should scare Wales silly.

Fantasy Fan Tussle

Regular readers - yes, both of you - are welcome to join the Web-Ellion RWC2011 fantasy tournament "private league" on ESPN Scrum.

The PIN code is 2410.

Generation Game

On a day full of absurd statistics - the side with 80% possession lost the match, after all - I offer one that appears to have been overlooked:

The last time Wales beat England by double figures, was the RWC Quarter-final in 1987. The time before that; the 5 Nations in 1979. England have got used to posting cricket scores against Wales, but this was Wales' biggest win over the old enemy in a generation. Just a little something to ponder while we debate the result's wider significance...

Meanwhile, the commendably jovial England fans on this late train to Swansea have, in their overtures to the indigenous sorority, looked far more likely to score than their heroes in white. Chwarae Teg...

Luke Warm-Up

Much was made of the "experimental" nature of both teams at Twickenham on Saturday. Once Stephen Jones had pulled out with seconds to spare, to leave first-time starter Rhys Priestland as Wales' playmaker, things were looking more -mental than experi-. After Morgan Stoddart's terrible injury, Scott Williams - an uncapped centre - took over at fly-half, and things veered toward the farcical. Let it be said that both players did fine jobs under such trying conditions.

Meanwhile, at the other asymptote of the international experience curve, Jonny Wilkinson had his best game in an England shirt for years. If nothing else, this will have given a few nightmares to any Australians watching. If he can make the improvement stick, he could hardly have timed it better.

Both sides will take limited satisfaction from this match. England looked dangerous in patches, and showed calm control when it mattered. In Armitage's take-and-run, they provided the "champagne moment" of the match. Wales struggled horribly to obtain and maintain possession, but did a lot of good things with such limited ball. Most importantly, they looked more positive in attack, and less locked-in to a structure of play.

Warming up for a World Cup by playing England has gone disastrously wrong for Wales on the last two occasions. England still won this match, but they had to fight for it, and an under-strength Wales team didn't look outclassed. With medical updates suggesting that a significantly stronger matchday XV will be possible for the return leg next week, Warren Gatland might be quietly confident of a morale-boosting win. For England, there's the carrot of bragging rights for a Millennium Stadium double this year. How their fans would love that.

BallsUpGate

The events surrounding Wales' try at the weekend are obviously a mess. I think most can agree that referee Jonathan Kaplan should simply have disallowed the try and re-played the lineout.

However, I don't concur with the opprobrium raining down on assistant referee Peter Allan. I believe that Kaplan is primarily to blame. Here's what I think happened; condensed as much as possible, I promise:

The lineout isn't full-formed but several players are in place. Kaplan moves to the correct lineout position, marks it with his foot, and then watches as Rees instantly feeds Phllips to restart. The key issue subsequently is, what does Kaplan think just took place? A quick throw-in, or a lineout?

After Ireland protest the score Kaplan asks Allan "Are you comfortable? Correct ball?"

NOTE - he doesn't ask if it was the SAME ball.

Allan replies "It wasn't a quick throw-in. He threw it in quickly, but..."

Allan KNOWS the ball was changed, but he thinks it is irrelevant because he believes a lineout had formed.

Kaplan, crucially, interrupts him by repeating "Was it the correct ball?" This clearly suggests that he thinks it was a quick throw-in, as it's an irrelevant question otherwise. Allan disagrees, but if repeats his assertion, or asks for clarification, he risks appearing to show dissent and undermining Kaplan's authority. But he does genuinely believe that a fair lineout took place. The safest way out now, as he sees it, is to (a) stick to his original opinion (without repeating it) and (b) answer the question precisely as asked.

He says, carefully, "It's the correct ball, yes."

Kaplan: "It is?"

Allan: "Yes. Yes."

Believing that a lineout took place, Allan regards any match ball as "the correct ball", so this answer is truthful. Assuming that Allan did know about the ball change, what he could have said, without necessarily implying criticism or dissent, is "It wasn't the SAME ball." Under pressure, he played it safe.

But the main fault lies with Kaplan for not making it clear what kind of restart he was officiating over. And he didn't even need to do that explicitly, if only he had just asked "Was that the SAME ball?"

His insistence on the word "correct" effectively passed the buck to his assistant. I don't blame Peter Allan for passing it straight back.

Calling The Mark

Much has been made - and fairly so - of Wales' abysmal home record against Ireland. If we thought the Grand Slam decider of '05 had buried the hoodoo, we've been put right on that score since. Whoever comes in as the fancied side, Ireland simply always win this fixture. It's incredibly frustrating, and like all dorsal primates, its grip only seems to increase for struggling.

It's as pertinent as ever this year, as the game offers a knife-edge to Wales' immediate future.Win, and mid-table respectability is secured. Wales can then roll the dice in Paris... and that has worked before. Lose, and the spectre of yet another ignominious fourth place - or worse - casts a suffocating pall of doubt over any foreign ambitions.

But there's a statistical escape route for Wales. Of Ireland's last three victories in Cardiff, two have been secured by late drop-goals from Ronan O'Gara. Factor in his habitual controlling performances on home soil, and it's hard to nominate another single player responsible for so much grievous damage to Welsh rugby fortunes in the last decade. Brian O'Driscoll may inspire a more visceral terror when he takes the field; but it's O'Gara who usually beats us.

So, with the teams widely regarded as being evenly matched - even if that equates more prosaically to "equally mediocre" - and theories abounding as to the strategies that may win the day, I humbly offer my own whiteboard suggestions for securing a rare Welsh victory. In the finest tradition of the armchair theorist; if we don't do this, and lose... well, expect me to file my next blog entry from my holiday chalet in the People's Republic of I Told You So.

Hook Happy To Hook

Wales' latest injury-prompted reshuffle may have raised eyebrows across the rugby world, but James Hook has declared himself ready for the challenge of playing in an international front row for the first time in his 50-cap career.

"I'm just happy to play for my country," said the 26-yr-old at the team anouncement, "I know I've not had much experience in the pack - and everyone knows I'm a back at heart - but this is just a new challenge really, and I'm up for it."

"The clue was in the name, really" said forwards coach Robin McBryde, when asked to explain his thinking. "Hook, hooker - I'm actually not sure why we didn't spot it earlier. James has responded really well in training, and I think I've even noticed one of his ears start to curl..."

"James has been our first-choice fly-half for nearly two weeks now." backs coach Rob Howley explained. "I'm sure the chance to have a change, to try something new, will only make him a better player."

Hook's sudden and unexpected admission to the fabled "Front Row Union" has left little time for bonding with his new packmates. However, McBryde was able to use the team announcement to present Hook with a gift from his teammates, in the form of a stringed musical instrument. Head coach Warren Gatland then revealed that the squad would be leaving the hotel direct for a local dairy farm, where a brief initiation ceremony would be performed.

Different Kinds of Average

Against England in Cardiff, Wales were decidedly average. Against slightly-better-than-average opponents, it seemed they just weren't quite average enough. What such a downtrodden and self-doubting bunch most needed next, was to come up against a side for whom the rarefied uplands of "Average" are but a giddy dream. Step forward, then, "much-improved" pre-match favourites, Scotland.

Australia and South Africa have recently failed at Murrayfield. Argentina coughed up only their second-ever series defeat to northern opposition when faced with this rejuvenated, resurgent Scottish team. Popular wisdom said that Wales - floundering, spluttering, punch-drunk Wales - were just so much haggis meat.

Well, the pundits weren't completely wrong. Wales were still average, although they did seem this time to have at least crested the foothills and begun an assault on Average Peak. Scotland? Well, frankly, no-one has any idea. This was a no-show that even Donald Rumsfeld might have seemed embarrassed to explain. Scottish fans are no strangers to disappointment, of course, but it's hard to remember seeing any Scotland team play quite so spectacularly badly as they did on Saturday.

All of which - rather annoyingly - dulls the joy of a long-awaited Welsh win. 24-6 is a hearteningly comprehensive scoreline. In fact, it's Wales' second-best winning margin in Edinburgh. It was achieved with the best 20 minutes of attacking rugby this team have produced in two years, followed by an hour of calmness and control that had previously seemed far beyond their capabilities. It was, in all honesty, nothing special for all that. It didn't need to be. Wales took their chances, made their tackles, used their strengths and avoided their weaknesses. It was an impressive professional performance, in a game that will be swiftly, and justly, forgotten. An "ugly" win, but a big one.

Rome awaits for a Wales team who will now have half a spring in their step. It would be as well for them to expect to meet the Italian team that made Ireland look so ordinary, rather than the sickly shadow that helped make England look so fine. This remains an eminently losable match. But a least the sense of doom has now been replaced by a more healthy apprehension.

Meanwhile, Scotland's drawing board needs to be returned to the drawing board factory for replacement, before they can even think of going back to the drawing board. And long before the Irish arrive in town.

An Uneasy Nostalgia

Wales v England in Cardiff. Although Wales have won this fixture the last three times, only last time, in 2009, were they actually pre-match favourites. That was a novel experience for Welsh fans. Tonight, things are pretty much back to normal, and it doesn't feel good.

Sure, most pundits give this depleted Wales outfit a fighting chance against a similarly weakened English side. Nonetheless, most of the smart money seems to rest on a narrow victory for the Great White Satan. How different things looked only a few weeks ago. Then, how the backs were going to make the most of their forwards' dominance seemed Wales' greatest problem. It's hard not to feel sorry for Paul James and Craig Mitchell, who must be sick of hearing how the Welsh front row is now a shadow of itself. But with two Lions props missing, how can it be viewed otherwise? James is rapidly improving as a player, but he's no Gethin Jenkins, while Mitchell is on the dangerous end of the promise/experience curve which Adam Jones has negotiated with aplomb. Mere parity at the scrum would now be an achievement.

The plus side for Wales is that England's lineout is similarly denuded. There will be no excuses there - which may have been the factor which got Stephen Jones' control the nod at 10, over the temptations of James Hook's creativity. As ever, an iniquitous burden rests on the veteran fly-half's broad shoulders. Should he carry it through, Wales might just beat the odds.

And so they should. England are a more confident, settled side, but the difference is not great enough for Wales ' fans to accept a home defeat. It's a must-win match for both sides, indeed - but a fully-firing home side should edge it. For better or worse, it's left to this matchday XXII to instil a new confidence in their anxious public, that what can be done, will. Are they up to it?

Ospreys to Play Pre-Season Friendly on Mars

In a bold move to promote Magners League rugby to a wider audience, the Ospreys' management today confirmed that their August 2011 pre-season fixture (opponents TBC) will be played on the Chryse Planitia, Mars.

President Azaxyr Cavor, of the red planet's embryonic Barsoom Rugby Federation, announced at a joint media conference on Moonbase 4;

"For many years, the people of Mars have regarded the Magners League with envious eyes. When I first proposed the construction of the Chryse Stadium, many told me, 'Even if you build it, the chances of them coming are a million-to-one!'

Today, my colleagues and I stand vindicated, as Mars welcomes First Class rugby football in what we all hope will be the first of many interplanetary sporting exchanges."

Asked why the Ospreys had chosen Mars rather than the Liberty Stadium or - as a possible compromise - the Moon, Ospreys head coach Scott Johnson replied "We considered it - but there's just no atmosphere there." At time of writing it was unclear which venue Johnson was referring to.

Members of the Martian public attending the event seemed broadly enthusiastic. "Rugby seems a natural extension of traditional Martian values" said onlooker Mr. V. M. Smith.

"Also, we like those stands you use for the cameras. Three legs - very good!"

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(Disclaimer: This article aspires to be a satirical response to this one in the Daily Telegraph. Scientists regard the existence of rugby pitches on Mars to be highly unlikely. 'Smith' is not a real name.)

And all because...

It was a bit of a "Thornton's Selection" Christmas for an Ospreys supporter; an overdose of smooth caramel and Turkish delight, followed by a stale, tooth-cracking praline that turned out okay once swallowed.

It's not really Christmas until the Turks are stuffed, perhaps; but after the initial euphoria of the Ospreys' 60-17 solution to the "Best of the West" conundrum, things felt a little flat. Had the victims been Munster or Leicester, there would have been unbridled joy; but in truth I take no pleasure in seeing any Welsh side take so fulsome a thrashing, even at my own team's hands. With my Welsh hat on (I don't have a Welsh hat; it's an expression, okay?) it's unhealthy for the national team when a region struggles. The Scarlets' subsequent recovery to beat the Dragons suggests that their capitulation at Liberty Stadium was a blip. I hope so, as fervently as any of my monocular cousins.

On New Year's Eve, I sat disconsolately behind the wrong set of posts at the Cardiff City Stadium, as the team that had scored 60 points mere days ago seemed bent on conceding a similar total to the Blues. The second half reversal of fortunes meant that I got to see precious little action, but it was enough to suggest that the Ospreys had experienced a "blip" of their own. They tore into the Blues with a vengeance, and after leading by 21 at one stage, the home side did superbly well to cling on for a two-point win. Both teams will feel that they achieved something. They're both right.