An Uneasy Nostalgia

Wales v England in Cardiff. Although Wales have won this fixture the last three times, only last time, in 2009, were they actually pre-match favourites. That was a novel experience for Welsh fans. Tonight, things are pretty much back to normal, and it doesn't feel good.

Sure, most pundits give this depleted Wales outfit a fighting chance against a similarly weakened English side. Nonetheless, most of the smart money seems to rest on a narrow victory for the Great White Satan. How different things looked only a few weeks ago. Then, how the backs were going to make the most of their forwards' dominance seemed Wales' greatest problem. It's hard not to feel sorry for Paul James and Craig Mitchell, who must be sick of hearing how the Welsh front row is now a shadow of itself. But with two Lions props missing, how can it be viewed otherwise? James is rapidly improving as a player, but he's no Gethin Jenkins, while Mitchell is on the dangerous end of the promise/experience curve which Adam Jones has negotiated with aplomb. Mere parity at the scrum would now be an achievement.

The plus side for Wales is that England's lineout is similarly denuded. There will be no excuses there - which may have been the factor which got Stephen Jones' control the nod at 10, over the temptations of James Hook's creativity. As ever, an iniquitous burden rests on the veteran fly-half's broad shoulders. Should he carry it through, Wales might just beat the odds.

And so they should. England are a more confident, settled side, but the difference is not great enough for Wales ' fans to accept a home defeat. It's a must-win match for both sides, indeed - but a fully-firing home side should edge it. For better or worse, it's left to this matchday XXII to instil a new confidence in their anxious public, that what can be done, will. Are they up to it?